Fiscal Dominance And Optimal Maturity Structure Of Sovereign Debt
Speaker(s) Dr. Subhadeep Halder, ISI Delhi Publication CAFRAL, Mumbai
ABSTRACT

We assemble a novel granular level dataset on Indian public debt consisting of central government security level data from 1999 to 2022 to study the debt dynamics and ascertain how the maturity structure of debt can provide us with another way to look at the debate of "active and "passive" regimes in monetary-fiscal coordination and understanding the optimal sovereign debt management for a large emerging market economy- India. Our study uses about 8000 central government marketable dated securities and provides a snapshot of the debt dynamics with regard to the maturity structure of debt and the interest cost burden using Hall and Sargent’s (1997,2011) methodology. Our calculations show that the average maturity of debt has been declining and most of the center’s debt is below 15 years. From the yield-to-maturity data, we find that there are periods when the spread between the interest rates declined and a clear level effect on the yield-to-maturity schedule before and after the pandemic. In light of such findings, our paper has a two-fold focus namely (i) the extension of the Hall-Sargent framework to account for debt decomposition with explicitly accounting for term premia and (ii) looking at how fiscal dominance affects the maturity structure of debt, (as provided by the decomposition) using a simple theoretical model.